Weekly Economic Update (Sept 23rd – Sept 27th)

• Nigeria’s unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q1 2024

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria's unemployment rate rose to 5.30% in Q1 2024, compared to 5.0% in Q3 2023 and 4.10% in Q1 2023. This increase is not surprising, as it reflects the current macroeconomic headwinds that have constrained business growth and diminished job creation. The Q2 GDP report reinforced this, showing that many productive sectors, which are labour-intensive, either slowed or contracted. This slowdown is primarily attributed to the effects of interest rate hikes, the lag in the impact of currency appreciation, rising logistics costs, and weak aggregate demand.

Implication

Nigeria's unemployment rate is expected to remain high in the upcoming quarters, as the high interest rate environment and other factors hinder business expansion, restricting companies' ability to create jobs. However, specific government policies, including tax incentives for employers and initiatives to promote domestic manufacturing may improve employment opportunities in the medium to long term.

Market Update

Oil market – Mixed market sentiment At the start of the week, Brent crude prices rose to a four-week high of $75.14 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, interest rate cuts in the US, and aggressive stimulus packages announced by China’s central bank. However, by mid-week, prices dropped due to expectations of increased supply from Libya and Saudi Arabia. The rival governments in Libya have agreed to appoint a new central bank governor, indicating that oil production and exports would normalize soon, easing concerns about supply shortages. On average, Brent crude prices declined slightly by 0.91%, falling to $73.22 per barrel from $73.89 the previous week. Outlook Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term due to the interplay of demand and supply.

Forex Market – Increased forex turnover supported currency appreciation in the official market The Naira experienced volatility in the parallel market, depreciating to ₦1,700/$ by the end of the week, down from ₦1,640/$ the previous week. Conversely, it appreciated in the official market, closing at ₦1,540.78/$, up from ₦1,562.66/$ at the start of the week. The strengthening of the currency was partially driven by an increase in forex sales. Average daily forex turnover at the I&E window surged by 41.08%, reaching $182.68 million, compared to $129.49 million the previous week. Additionally, gross external reserves rose to $37.87 billion on September 25, up from $37.47 billion on September 20. Outlook The CBN's interest rate hike and the resulting rise in fixed-income yields are expected to enhance foreign portfolio investment. Additionally, the commencement of crude sales to Dangote in Naira in October is likely to contribute to currency stability in the short term.

Money market – Improved liquidity supported by FAAC inflows Liquidity within the banking system improved significantly during the review period as the opening position was positive throughout the week, averaging N462.09 billion long compared to a short position of N331.15 billion in the preceding week. This was partly supported by inflows from FAAC allocation and the Sukuk-2024 maturity repayment. Consequently, the average short-term interbank interest rates declined by 856 basis points to 22.75% from 31.31% in the prior week. Outlook At the last MPC meeting, the committee voted to increase the CRR for DMBs by 500 basis points to 50%. This is likely to weigh on banking liquidity in the near term.

Fixed income market At the September bond auction, the three benchmark bonds were re-opened [19.30% FGN APR 2029 (5-year), the 18.50% FGN FEB 2031 (7-year), and the 19.89% FGN MAY 2033 (9-year)].

The DMO offered N150 billion across the three tenors but allotted N264.53 billion. Total subscriptions decreased to N414.881 billion from N460.182 billion in August, marking a 9.8% decline, with the 9-year bond experiencing the largest drop. Marginal rates for all bonds fell, indicating a more favorable borrowing environment. While the decline in subscriptions reflects investor caution due to broader economic conditions, the sustained demand for longer-dated bonds suggests confidence in government securities. The secondary bond market was bearish during the review period, reflecting the outcome of the primary market auction and the 50 basis points hike in the monetary policy rate at the September MPC meeting. Notably, the average benchmark yield increased slightly by 0.02% to close the week at 18.47%.

During the review period, there was a primary market treasury bill auction, where the CBN offered to roll over N227.54 billion in maturing Treasury Bills. Total subscriptions reached N304.27 billion while the CBN sold N227.54 billion. Stop rates rose across the tenors by 0.37%, 0.50%, and 1.41%, settling at 17.00%, 17.50%, and 20.00% for the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills, respectively.

The secondary Treasury bills segment was also bearish over the past week, with notable selloffs, particularly in the February and March maturities. This trend was driven by the CBN's hawkish stance and the outcomes of the NTB primary market auction. As a result, the average benchmark yield across the curve increased by 1.14%, closing the week at 21.94%, up from 20.80% the previous week.

Outlook We expect the bearish sentiment to continue in the near term, reflecting the CBN’s hawkish stance.

Stock market – Positive sentiment, partly due to ongoing capital raise & dividend declaration The stock market experienced positive performance, recording gains on three out of five trading days. The ASI increased by 0.21%, ending the week at 98,458.68 points on September 27, up from 98,247.99 points on September 20. Similarly, market capitalization rose by 0.43%, closing at ₦56.58 trillion, compared to ₦56.34 trillion the previous week. This upward trend was partly driven by banks' ongoing capital raise and investor positioning for interim dividends. The average trading volume increased by 42.55% to 662.85 million units from 464.98 million units, while the average trading value fell by 4.68% to ₦9.16 trillion from ₦9.61 billion last week.

Market breadth for the week was positive, with 44 stocks recording gains, 31 stocks experiencing losses, and 64 stocks remaining unchanged. ELLAHLAKES led the gainers with a 59.74% increase, closing at ₦4.92 per share. REGALINS followed with a gain of 53.33% to close at ₦0.69 per share, while FLOURMILL rose by 22.89% to close at ₦62.00 per share. The stocks that performed poorly included CAVERTON (-27.37%), MULTIVERSE (-19.64%), OKOMUOIL (-13.10%), NSLTECH (-10.45%), and LEARNAFRCA (-10.22%). Outlook The CBN's interest rate hike and the subsequent rise in yields in the fixed-income market may encourage investors to adjust their portfolios in favor of fixed-income securities. This, along with profit-taking activities, could negatively impact stock performance. However, the declaration of interim dividends and ongoing capital raise are expected to support market activity.